Points of Public Interest

Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Enjoy the weekend by reading some great articles from this past week (if you're not watching the NCAA tournament)...

1. Ray Dalio: Man and machine - One of the best investors ever shares thoughts on two types of credit cycles present in his economic model.
2. Why ECRI’s Recession Call Stands - Lakshman Achuthan continues to defend his recession call from last year. I think current budget deficits are large enough to maintain 1.5-2% growth for most of the year. However, further deterioration in Europe and China’s economies may lead to the onset of recession in the 4th quarter.
3. Philip Pilkington: Falling for Behaviourism – The Neoclassicals Join a New Cult
4. Speculators might be in for a crude awakening - Marshall Auerback speculates on potentially forthcoming government actions that could send the price of oil down sharply.
5. Good and Bad Deficits - Robert Skidelsky argues that “Government deficits incurred on current spending for services or transfers are bad, because they produce no revenue and add to the national debt. Deficits resulting from capital spending, by contrast, are – or can be – good.” If only governments on both sides of the Atlantic could accept this view...
6. The Forgetting Pill Erases Painful Memories Forever - Fascinating article by Jonah Lehrer on how memories are re-created in our mind and potential cures for PTSD that disassociate the emotional response from the act of remembering.
7. The Myth Of Cash On The Sidelines – An Update - Don’t be fooled into buying stocks based on this myth.
8. The Bounds on what we are Likely to Learn from Models with Boundedly Rational Learning - Robert expresses skepticism over the current ability of any science to fully predict the expectations formed by individuals.