Showing posts with label DSGE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DSGE. Show all posts

Saturday, December 29, 2012

The Role of Money in Mainstream Macro

"In practice, of course, the purists were unable to deliver, and the new tricks involve the 'modern macroeconomists' in ad hoc assumptions of their own that are at least as objectionable as the Keynesian macroeconomic generalizations that [Michael] Wickens objected to. We have already encountered one example, the 'Gorman preferences' needed to make the representative agent at least minimally plausible... Two others are equally incredible. The first is the 'no-bankruptcies' assumption in Walrasian models and the related 'No Ponzi' conditon that is imposed on D[ynamic] S[tochastic] G[eneral] E[quilibrium] models. This eliminates the possibility of default, and hence the fear of default (since these are agents with rational expectations, who know the correct model, and hence know that there is no possibility of default), and hence the need for money, since if your promise to pay is 'as good as gold', it would be pointless for me to demand gold (or any other form of money) from you. Money would be at most a unit of account, but never a store of value. The second is the unobtrusive postulate of 'complete financial markets', smuggled into Michael Woodford's Interest and Prices(Woodford 2003, p. 64), which means that all possible future states of the world are known, probabilistically, and can be insured against: this eliminates uncertainty, and hence the need for finance..." -- J. E. King, The Microfoundations Delusion: Metaphor and Dogma in the History of Macroeconomics (2012: p. 228)

This quote is the lead in a recent post by Robert Vienneau putting forth the question, “Can General Equilibrium Theory find a role for money?” During my first semester in a PhD Economics program, application of the ‘No Ponzi’ condition appeared almost universal in macroeconomic models. At points I tried to raise the question of how removing this condition would impact results from the various models. Although a sufficient answer, at least for me, was not forthcoming, it appeared as though that condition was necessary to ensure a general equilibrium existed.

As for the inclusion of ‘complete financial markets’, I am not yet familiar with Woodford’s book, mentioned above. Having worked in financial markets for a few years, the notion of probabilistic uncertainty is not only false but completely misses an important aspect of investing. The purpose of holding various levels of cash over time is specifically because future states and their probabilities are unknown.

On the whole, general equilibrium models appear to remain consistent with the classical view of commodity trade, C-M-C' (a commodity is sold for money, which buys another, different commodity with an equal or higher value). Meanwhile two other views, put forth to account for a financial sector by Marx, have been largely ignored:

1) M-C-M' (money is used to buy a commodity which is resold to obtain a larger sum of money)
2) M-M' (a sum of money is lent out at interest to obtain more money, or, one currency or financial claim is traded for another. "Money begets money.")
Based on my initial exposure to advanced macroeconomics, it appears true that “money would be at most a unit of account, but never a store of value.”

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Points of Public Interest

Ugly day in DC after a beautiful week, but more good NCAA basketball on TV. Good luck to those whose brackets still have a chance of winning!

  1. “The Current Models Have Nothing to Say”
Should we be surprised? Policy makers continue to employ models of an economy with no financial system.
  1. Economics without a blind-spot on debt
The aggregate level of debt, especially private, matters in
forecasting economic growth.
  1. Consumer Credit Growing at Highest Rate in Past Decade: Unhealthy and Unsustainable?
Stopping addictive habits is not easy, but extending those actions will only make the eventual adjustment more difficult and painful.
  1. The Japan debt disaster and China’s (non)rebalancing
Chinese consumers continue to increase savings in lieu of domestic consumption. Japan is attempting to rebuild its trade surplus, but which countries will allow their surplus to decline or deficit to increase? Global (and domestic) imbalances not addressed remain significant risks to the global economic outlook.
  1. A step in the right direction
Scientific exploration incorporating complex systems and networks continues to move our understanding of reality forward.
  1. It's not structural unemployment, it's the corporate saving glut
Businesses save instead of investing in labor when consumer demand is weak. Until policy focuses on improving the consumer balance sheet (e.g. debt write-downs), unemployment will remain high.
  1. Wrong vs Early – Contrarians Bet on Natural Gas
The best investors are often early and patient.
  1. The Real Problem with Microfoundations
Microeconomics is not especially sound in predicting all outcomes
either.
  1. Principal writedowns of the day, mortgage edition
Positive for households but will Bank of America (and others) really accept the associated losses?
  1. Why Using P/E Ratios Can Be Misleading
In early 2009, at the market bottom, the P/E jumped to over 100 as profits plummeted. Using E/P corrects for this issue and shows the market is slightly overvalued currently.