Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Bring Back the Deutsche Mark!!

From the most often observed perspective, the picture is an older woman facing to the left, with a witch-like profile, and wearing a shawl.
Indeed, the vision of the old woman represents Greece.
In terms of the EU crisis, the vision of the old woman represents Greece leaving the EUR and going ‘old-school’, by bringing back the Drachma.
But there is an alternative ‘vision’ to be gleaned from within the picture shown above … that of a young woman, with dark hair and a perky little nose, facing left and away from the front and wearing a choker (which also serves as the thin lips of the old woman).
The young woman represents an alternative ‘vision’.
In terms of the European crisis, the young woman represents an alternative ‘solution’, one that does NOT include reviving the Drachma.
Indeed, if the Drachma were revived … eventually, there would be a similar need to bring the Spanish Peseta and the Portuguese Escudo out of retirement too …
… followed by the Italian Lira, and perhaps even the French Franc.
In such a circumstance …
… ALL of these currencies would be immediately ‘devalued’.
So what if we REVERSED the perspective.
What if we took the OPPOSITE ‘view’ ???
What if we suggest that a better solution than pushing Greece back into the Drachma … would be to let Germany resurrect the Deutsche Mark !!!
Read it at The Big Picture
By Greg Weldon (via John Mauldin)

Greg Weldon provides an alternative solution for the EU crisis with an expansive array of charts depicting the severity of current economic circumstances. As for trading ideas, Weldon notes:

In the meantime, we remain bearish on European stock indexes, along with the US S+P 500 and German DAX. We continue to focus on the Spanish IBEX, the Euro STOXX-50, the ‘Dutch’ AEX, the UK FTSE, and the Italian MIB.
I’ve been looking to shift my own portfolio in this direction as the markets, as a whole, are currently trading with single-digit CAPEs. Regardless of the outcome in Europe, large multinational companies will continue to sell goods and earn profits. Headline risk and economic deterioration may postpone the recovery, but in 5 to 10 years many may look back on the amazing opportunities they missed.  

Related posts:

Is Non-Existent Austerity Priced in to Euro Stoxx?

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