From the IMF/EU/ECB/German point of view, the direct cost of refusing to compromise, resulting in Syriza's reneging on the bailout agreement and defaulting is exceptionally high:
a) 70% of Greece's debt is now made up of official loans already disbursed: EUR 140bn.b) The ECB owns EUR 40bn of Greek bonds.c) Greek banks currently repo EUR 140bn with the ECB.Read it at Macro Man
A Greek debt moratorium would thus impose exceptionally large losses on international creditors directly.
Perfect Storm: Part 2
By cpmppi
Direct costs to the IMF/EU/ECB of a Greek exit are currently higher than I had recognized. This suggests Greece holds legitimate power if they choose to engage in a game of chicken. So far Greece has not appeared to exploit their positional power but potential new coalitions seem far less passive.
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