During the past two days, the S&P 500 has dropped about 15 points (over 1%) at the open and dropped further, to a low of more than 20 points down, a bit after 10am. However following these sharp sell offs, the index rallied back over 15 points to erase most of the losses. If the “Wall of Worry” truly existed (of which I’m skeptical), than presumably the same effects could work in reverse. Are the big reversals of the past two days a sign that a “Wall of Optimism” is now present? Have investors become so optimistic about a virtuous cycle in the US, smooth resolution in Europe and soft-landing in China that all dips must be bought regardless of how much news contradicts those presumptions?
Events of the past two days can either be taken as bullish resilience, bearish complacency or simply worthless noise. My preference lies in a combination of the latter two but I’m not willing to make a significant bet either way at this time. What significance, if any, do you think these moves hold?
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